Transit-First 2030
Scenario · Draft
Last modified: 09 Dec 2025 · 13:58 by A. Rivera
Overview
Policies
Infrastructure Changes
Population & Demand
Risks & Constraints
Scenario Summary
Objectives
  • Reduce average peak corridor travel time by 18% vs. baseline.
  • Increase transit mode share to at least 40% by 2030.
  • Ensure low-income districts see net accessibility gains ≥ 25%.
Key assumptions
  • Real fuel prices +22% by 2030 (real terms).
  • Metro expansion phases 1–3 delivered by 2029.
  • No major economic shocks beyond modelled ranges.
Impact Snapshot
vs. Baseline – Metrovale 2025
Budget impact (Net Present)
+$318M
Capex +$1.2B, Opex −$90M/yr
Emissions impact
−21%
Transport CO₂ in 2030
Service coverage
+17 pts
Avg. accessibility index
Policies
Draft configuration · Unsaved changes
Transport Pricing
Zoning & Land Use
Selected lever · Congestion Charge
Modelled in real 2025 dollars. Sensitivity range $6–$14.
Use tags for categories; equity effects are reported separately.
Estimated impact
  • Peak car volumes to CBD −19%.
  • Transit ridership +11% on affected corridors.
  • Net annual revenue: +$64M (allocated to transit OPEX).
Assumptions updated – re-run simulation to see effects.
Changes affect demand, costs, and emissions projections.